“A stock trader 5”
Image extraction: DALL・E2
Warning:
The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.
In summary…
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Week of December 04 – 08, 2023,
SPX500: buy
USD/JPY: sell
EUR/USD: buy
BTC/USD: buy
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Results…
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SPX500：
（open：4604.04 – close：4610.77）
USD/JPY：（open：146.72 – close：144.98）
EUR/USD：
（open：1.0873 – close：1.0757）
BTC/USD：（open：43018.31 – close：45323.90）
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):
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SPX500
Firstly, looking at the recent performance of the SPX500 (S&P 500), it recorded an 8.92% increase in November 2023 and has achieved an increase of over 19% since the beginning of the year. This is seen as a result of investors’ growing confidence that the interest rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached its peak. In addition, there are signs that inflation is cooling down after recording the highest inflation rate in forty years last year, raising expectations that the Fed may start cutting interest rates earlier than expected.
Furthermore, the fact that the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes to date have not caused significant damage to the US economy is also considered one of the reasons behind the bullish movement in the stock market. The market expects the Fed to achieve the so-called “Goldilocks” scenario, successfully suppressing the rise in consumer prices without significantly harming growth.
Moreover, the S&P 500 is primarily driven by the stocks of several large corporations, which have seen stock price increases ranging from approximately 47% to 220% in 2023. This also indicates the market’s good condition.
However, due to the rapid rise of the S&P 500, it is currently receiving considerably higher valuations compared to past levels, which could potentially be an obstacle to future rallies.
Finally, the forecast for December 2023 predicts that the S&P 500 will rise from 4595 at the beginning of the month to 4846 at the end of the month, indicating a 5.46% increase.
Considering these factors, as a short-term trade strategy, it seems reasonable to buy SPX500 at the beginning of next week and close the position before the end of the week.
Reference:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/resurgent-sp-500-crests-new-2023-closing-high-after-roller-coaster-year-2023-12-01/
https://longforecast.com/content/view/35/44#:~:text=S%26P%20500%20predictions%20for%20December,46
USD/JPY
First, regarding the trends of USD/JPY, it has been confirmed that Japan’s inflation rate continues to exceed 2% and is maintaining above 3%. Such a situation increases the possibility of a policy shift by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The BoJ desires sustained inflation above 2%, which could end its dovish (easing) stance towards the Japanese Yen, potentially supporting the Yen.
From a technical analysis perspective, the daily chart of USD/JPY has recently been respecting the 50-day moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates short-term bearish (downward) momentum. However, last week’s weekly candlestick close formed a hammer-type candlestick, suggesting a long-term bullish (upward) trend. The recent daily candlesticks resemble an ascending triangle pattern, which is also a bullish sign. Key resistance levels are at 151.95 and 150.00, while support levels are at 148.16, the 50-day moving average, 147.37, 145.91, and 145.00.
However, considering the overall perspective, with Japan’s high inflation rate continuing and the increasing likelihood of a policy shift by the Bank of Japan, and based on the technical analysis of USD/JPY, it seems reasonable to take a short position in the short term. While signs of a long-term upward trend are visible, for short-term trades until the end of next week, the strength of the Yen should be considered.
EUR/USD
Firstly, the inflation rate in the Eurozone is rapidly decreasing, with the headline inflation rate in the Eurozone dropping to 2.4%, the lowest in over two years. This strengthens expectations for an early rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). The reduced inflation rate is typically not good for a currency and may limit the upside potential of the Euro. However, data from the United States could cause significant fluctuations in EUR/USD.
In the United States, a slowdown in economic activity has been reported, along with businesses experiencing eased inflation and easier employment of workers. This implies that a more dovish (easing) stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be maintained.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair has dropped nearly 1 cent from recent highs, and yet there’s no loss significant enough to threaten the short-term upward trend. If it falls below 1.09, there is a slight downward risk for the Euro in the short term, but strong support is expected in the range of 1.0825/1.0850.
Overall, the decrease in the Eurozone’s inflation rate and the anticipation of ECB rate cuts, combined with the slowdown in economic activity in the U.S. and the Fed’s dovish stance, provide a basis for taking a short-term long position in EUR/USD. This analysis is not indicative of a long-term trend but is from the perspective of short-term trades up until the end of next week.
BTC/USD
First, according to recent market analysis of Bitcoin, adopting a “buy-the-dip” strategy is considered the most prudent approach. Bitcoin may fall to the level of $35,000, a level that could invigorate the market. The 50-day exponential moving average is continuing upwards and is expected to intersect near the $35,000 level, presenting an attractive case for potential buyers.
Regarding Bitcoin’s price forecast, the price at the beginning of December is $37,688, with an expected increase of 11.6% to $42,044 by the end of the month. This forecast indicates a short-term upward trend for Bitcoin.
Moreover, Bitcoin recently recorded a high of $39,000 on Coinbase. This movement was triggered by comments from Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed). He warned that it is premature to assume that the Fed will end its rate hikes and shift to rate cuts soon. Despite this, Bitcoin has continued to rise and is said to be targeting $40,000.
In summary, considering the market trends of Bitcoin and economic factors, it seems appropriate to buy BTC/USD at the beginning of next week and to close the position before the end of the week. Especially, the opportunity to take a long position when Bitcoin’s price reaches the $35,000 level is attractive, and the forecasted short-term upward trend also supports this strategy.
Reference:
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/btcusd-forecast-1-december-2023/204504
https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd#:~:text=Bitcoin%20price%20prediction%20for%20December,6
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-12-01/Bitcoin-hits-fresh-2023-high-of-39k-analysts-say-the-rally-is-just-getting-started.html
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Extraction date & time:
20231203 22:39
This time, ChatGPT, without browsing any sites, listed some non-controversial things, such as market outlooks, and then concluded with a disclaimer like “assuming the economy is in good shape…” before providing a judgment on buying or selling. Therefore, it was necessary to emphasize specifically in the question that information should be gathered by browsing sites and that the judgment should be based on that. Previously, browsing was often done naturally as part of the response. I have a feeling, albeit vague, that periodically and cyclically, even with the same questions, the way of responding is deliberately varied. If that is the case, it might be one strategy to prevent users from getting bored.
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