“The institutional investor 2”
Image extraction: DALL・E2
Warning:
The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.
In summary…
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Week of Feburary 5 – 9, 2024,
SPX500: buy
USD/JPY: buy
EUR/USD: buy
BTC/USD: buy
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Results…
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SPX500：
（open：4960.10 – close：5024.97）
USD/JPY：（open：148.37 – close：149.26）
EUR/USD：（open：1.0781 – close：1.0784）
BTC/USD：（open：42745.09 – close：47536.00）
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):
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SPX500
Next week, we will consider buying SPX500 at the start of the week. The reasoning is based on several factors.
First, according to analysis from Seeking Alpha, the S&P 500 is expected to grow towards 2024, especially with expected earnings growth from the technology, communication, and discretionary sectors. Additionally, the market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) to actively lower interest rates in 2024, which could positively impact stock prices. Furthermore, the analysis predicts that S&P 500 earnings will grow by 10.9% in 2024, with AI themes playing a significant role. However, while there’s a high probability for the S&P 500 to maintain its strong performance and reach a target of 5300 in the first half, cautious approach is needed due to potential increased uncertainty and market volatility in the latter half (Seeking Alpha).
On the other hand, according to Goldman Sachs’ forecast, the S&P 500 is expected to deliver about a 6% return in 2024. This reflects the anticipated 2.1% growth in US GDP, although high equity valuations are thought to limit the upside potential. Furthermore, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates towards the end of 2024, which could positively affect stock prices. However, careful monitoring of stock market trends is necessary towards the latter half of the year due to potential risk containment from election uncertainties and other factors (Goldman Sachs).
Considering these analyses, when taking positions in the S&P 500, it’s crucial to closely monitor the macroeconomic environment, especially Fed policies and earnings growth forecasts for each sector. Additionally, with the potential for increased market volatility towards the latter half of the year, it might be wise to unwind positions by the weekend and adjust strategies according to market fluctuations.
This is merely a hypothetical scenario based on one analysis, and actual investment decisions involve many factors. Investing involves risks, so it’s important to seek professional advice and consider your own risk tolerance when making actual trades.
USD/JPY
You might consider a buying position based on the analysis. This decision is based on the following reasons.
Policy adjustment by the Bank of Japan:
There are signs that the Bank of Japan may make policy adjustments in 2024, which could support the value of the yen. Especially, further strengthening of the yen is expected if the Bank of Japan changes its “Yield Curve Control” policy, which has been contributing to the yen’s value appreciation.
US monetary policy:
On the other hand, there are indications that the Fed might lower interest rates in the US. Usually, lowering interest rates tends to decrease the value of the relevant currency, which could put pressure on the dollar and potentially favor a buying position in USD/JPY.
Technical analysis:
USD/JPY is positioned at the lower limit of an ascending channel, and a rebound from this support is expected. If a rebound occurs from this support, the pair’s value could rise, at least in the short term.
However, the foreign exchange market is highly uncertain and influenced by many external factors, so this analysis is based on current information. Awareness of unforeseen factors that could change this outlook, such as market fluctuations, new economic data, and geopolitical events, is necessary. Additionally, since investing involves risks, when taking positions, it’s important to consider your own risk tolerance and investment goals.
This analysis is based on information from FX Empire (fxempire.com) and Market Pulse (fxopen.com).
EUR/USD
Based on current market analysis and forecasts, you might consider a buying position.
ING and BNP Paribas have a positive outlook for EUR/USD in 2024, predicting it could reach 1.15 by year-end. This is due to the expected slowdown in the US economy and easing inflation, as well as anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Fed. Particularly, ING predicts that the Fed will start a 150bp rate cut between May and June 2024, contributing to the strengthening of EUR/USD.
Conversely, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have a somewhat bearish outlook for EUR/USD, with Morgan Stanley predicting EUR/USD could return to parity (1.00) in the first quarter of 2024. This is expected as the eurozone economy is anticipated to enter a technical recession, leading to potential rate cuts by the central bank.
Additionally, an Action Forex article mentions several uncertainty factors affecting EUR/USD in 2024, such as the direction and pace of monetary policies from the Fed and ECB, geopolitical situations, economic and labor market conditions, and the extent of control over inflation and energy prices. Especially if the market expects the Fed to ease monetary policy and start rate cuts before the ECB, the US dollar could continue to be under pressure.
When deciding on positions for EUR/USD next week, it’s important to pay special attention to the US economic trends and the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy. The economic situation in the eurozone and the ECB’s policy response, as well as geopolitical risks, are also important factors. Based on these elements, when formulating short-term trading strategies, it’s crucial to be sensitive to events that could cause market fluctuations, such as announcements of monetary policies or releases of economic data. Moreover, due to high market uncertainty, careful attention to risk management, including position sizing and setting stop losses, is essential.
The analysis is based on information from Capex.com (capex.com), Action Forex (actionforex.com), and others.
BTC/USD
You might consider a buying position based on the analysis. This decision is based on the following reasons.
Bitcoin price forecasts:
Some analyses predict significant price increases for Bitcoin beyond 2024. For instance, Matrixport predicts BTC/USD could reach 45,000 dollars by the end of 2024, and BitQuant suggests it could surpass its current peak before the halving, eventually reaching 250,000 dollars.
Impact of the halving cycle:
The Bitcoin halving event has been a significant factor in past price increases. An article from Seeking Alpha predicts the halving event will occur in 2024, which could lead BTC/USD to reach a range of 85,000 to 90,000 dollars.
Fundamentals and institutional demand:
Increasing institutional demand, especially the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, is creating a very bullish sentiment for Bitcoin. This institutional demand is seen as a key factor supporting Bitcoin’s price increase.
However, several economic weaknesses could hinder significant price increases for Bitcoin. For example, the contraction of the M2 money supply, high interest rates, instability in the Middle East, and recent waves of layoffs could reduce demand for Bitcoin.
Combining these analyses, the outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic yet calls for a cautious approach. Especially in the current high economic uncertainty, thorough risk management is crucial when devising investment strategies. Being sensitive to market fluctuations and recognizing that specific news or events could rapidly change the situation is also important.
The analysis is based on information from Seekingalpha.com (seekingalpha.com) and others.
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Extraction date & time:
20240204 23:45
This time, two variations in the response method were observed: structuring the analysis in paragraph form and listing it in bullet points. It’s still unclear what determines this variation.
By the way, the response for EUR/USD was intriguing. It seems like the major banks’ forecasts are sharply divided between long and short positions. After all, ChatGPT’s economic forecasts essentially compile related articles from major sites, so it feels meaningful to occasionally gather and present such facts.
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