1. ChatGPT economic forcast

June 19th ~ 23rd, 2023 – ChatGPT Economic Forecasts

The action that selling and buying stocks with chart. David Hockney tasted 2

“The action that selling and buying stocks with chart 2”
Image extraction: DALL・E2

Warning:

The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.

In summary…

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Week of June 19 – 23, 2023,
SPX500: buy
USD/JPY: buy
EUR/USD: sell
BTC/USD: sell
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Results…

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SPX500:sellicon-wrong(open:4421.06 – close:4351.77)
USD/JPY:buyicon-right(open:141.68 – close:143.72)
EUR/USD:sellicon-right(open:1.0939 – close:1.0894)
BTC/USD:buyicon-wrong(open:26455.00 – close:30911.70)
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):

"SPX500
Let’s start with the consideration of SPX500 (S&P500). According to recent reports, the S&P500 has reached a 13-month high, and the market seems to be expecting further increases【12†source】. This is due to a very rare sign of updating a new 52-week high for more than 300 days. This has only been observed 25 times in the past, and each time, the S&P500 has produced above-average returns【12†source】【13†source】【14†source】.

Not all analysts share this positive view, and some continue to have concerns. In particular, while the S&P500 is recording a new 52-week high, only a few of its constituent stocks have reached the same high. This is pointed out as an indication that market leadership is narrowing【17†source】.

Taking all this information into account, I will choose to buy the S&P500 this week. This is to support the view that the market may continue to rise beyond some concerns. However, as some analysts suggest, caution is needed about the narrowing market leadership. The market may be rising, driven by some strong stocks, and in such situations, some stocks may weaken before the overall market weakness becomes apparent. Therefore, if such signs appear, you should consider liquidating the position early.

USD/JPY
Next, let’s consider USD/JPY. According to recent reports, U.S. inflation appears to be cooling, which seems to be the reason for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to temporarily halt its rate hike【27†source】. This supports the rise of USD/JPY, but on the other hand, the dollar index has recorded its lowest in three weeks【28†source】.

The current rate of USD/JPY is about 139.90, and from a technical analysis point of view, USD/JPY can be said to be slightly bullish from neutral. However, to move into a more bullish state, it needs to break the level of 140.00. On the other hand, if USD/JPY falls below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), a downward pull is expected【29†source】.

Taking all this information into account, I will choose to buy USD/JPY this week. This is due to the fact that U.S. inflation is showing signs of cooling and, as a result, the market expects the Fed to have a high possibility of temporarily stopping its rate hikes. These elements may suppress the value of the dollar while potentially pushing up the value of the dollar against the yen. However, if USD/JPY falls below the 20-day EMA, a downward pull is expected to continue, so if such signs appear, you should consider liquidating the position early.

EUR/USD
According to the latest information, after the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the U.S. dollar is trading around 139.90 against the Japanese yen, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 103.201, down 0.34%​1​. This is because U.S. inflation shows signs of cooling off, which is a reason for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to temporarily halt its rate hikes(*1). However, inflation is still seen in some areas, and the market expects a 58.2% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting(*1).

Considering the current situation, I will choose to hold a short position in EUR/USD at the beginning of the week. This reflects the possibility of a U.S. interest rate hike and the strength of the U.S. dollar. Also, while the economic situation in the Eurozone is unconfirmed, the strength of the U.S dollar usually pushes down EUR/USD. However, market movements are unpredictable, so don’t forget to liquidate your position by the weekend.

BTC/USD
Finally, let’s talk about BTC/USD. According to the latest information, Bitcoin has recently become more volatile. There are several factors that could potentially affect the price of Bitcoin, including political trends associated with the implementation of El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law, and the suspension of mining due to regulations in China​2​. In addition, concerns about the use of Bitcoin related to crime in the United States, and profit-taking by investors are pushing down the price of Bitcoin​6​.

Considering these factors, I will choose to hold a short position in BTC/USD at the beginning of the week. This reflects the market’s uncertainty and political risk regarding Bitcoin."

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1.
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-nears-14000-mark-following-us-cpi-report-202306131643

Extraction date & time:

20230618 17:10

This time, instead of displaying the source link, ChatGPT is using “†” as in “12†source”. This symbol seems to be called a dagger, and its usage is often "used to indicate the existence of footnotes such as references" (refer to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagger_(mark)). It was educational for me.

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