“A stock trader 2”
Image extraction: DALL・E2
Warning:
The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.
In summary…
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Week of November 13 – 17, 2023,
SPX500: buy
USD/JPY: buy
EUR/USD: sell
BTC/USD: buy
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Results…
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SPX500：
（open：4419.00 – close：4516.17）
USD/JPY：（open：151.40 – close：149.63）
EUR/USD：
（open：1.0683 – close：1.0912）
BTC/USD：（open：37165.20 – close：36396.70）
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):
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SPX500
Market Technical Analysis:
The SPX500 is currently testing the range from the beginning of the month, and major resistance targets are coming into view. The S&P 500 is attempting to break through a significant resistance area at 3906/08, which corresponds to the 50% retracement of the decline in August and the lowest closing in May. Surpassing this threshold is necessary to validate a larger breakout in November. At 3958, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of October’s rise, the SPX500 may show further reaction.
Economic Growth Outlook:
The real GDP of the United States is forecasted to average 2.1% in 2023, exceeding last year’s growth rate of 1.9%. However, growth in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down to 2.7%. This indicates that the pace of economic growth is stabilizing, which may impact the market.
Labor Cost Pressure:
The increase in labor costs is complicating the U.S. Federal Reserve’s efforts to control inflation. Recent private payroll reports show a 5.7% increase in wages year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years. This suggests that the cost of labor for companies is rising, potentially affecting the stock market.
Rising Mortgage Interest Rates:
The average mortgage interest rate has nearly doubled in the past two years, exceeding 8% in October. This signifies an increase in borrowing costs for consumers, businesses, and the government, potentially putting a brake on economic growth.
Considering these fundamental factors, I am considering a buying position. The market technical analysis indicates that the SPX500 is trying to break through a significant resistance area and is showing a certain upward trend. Such a trend suggests the possibility of further market rise. However, it is important to consider fundamental factors such as the slowdown in economic growth and the increase in labor costs, closely monitor market trends, and adjust strategies flexibly.
Reference sites:
https://www.dailyfx.com/analysis/s-p-500-short-term-outlook-spx500-threatens-breakout-at-monthly-high-20221110.html
https://www.welchforbes.com/insights/economic-outlook-november-2023/
USDJPY
Japanese Monetary Policy:
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues its ultra-easing monetary policy and has recently relaxed the target for domestic 10-year government bond yields. This has caused the yen to rise, but the BoJ maintains a negative interest rate policy and continues measures to support the economy. The Bank of Japan’s policy could expose the Japanese yen to further decline.
U.S. Monetary Policy:
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is aggressively raising interest rates as a measure against inflation. This makes the U.S. dollar an attractive investment option against the Japanese yen. The interest rate difference between the U.S. and Japan is a factor in the rise of USD/JPY.
Market Trends:
USD/JPY is maintaining high levels due to the recent policy differences between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. It is approaching last year’s high of 151.94, but trading is considered challenging due to the anticipated intervention of the Bank of Japan.
Japanese Economic Situation:
The economic situation in Japan also needs to be considered. The Japanese government is preparing to announce a 21.8 trillion yen stimulus package to promote growth and alleviate inflationary pressures. This could increase pressure on the Japanese yen.
Integrating this information, I am likely to take a buying position on USD/JPY next week. The combination of rising U.S. interest rates and Japan’s ultra-easing monetary policy is putting downward pressure on the Japanese yen. However, the uncertainty due to the Bank of Japan’s policy should also be considered. It is important to always respond flexibly based on the latest market data and adjust strategies accordingly.
Reference sites:
https://capital.com/usd-to-jpy-forecast
https://www.dailyfx.com/news/japanese-yen-usd-jpy-nearing-a-33-year-high-on-further-stimulus-talk-20231101.html
EURUSD
Market Trends:
Recent movements in EUR/USD are highly uncertain, and no particularly strong trend seems to have formed. October failed to maintain an upward trend, and it appears difficult for a strong upward trend to form in November given the economic situation. It is expected that mixed results will continue until EUR/USD sustains a value above 1.06500.
Economic Data Impact:
Recent GDP data from the Eurozone suggests a recession, while consumer confidence in the U.S. remains strong. Therefore, EUR/USD is exposed to downward pressure, and further declines are expected if it falls below 1.05500.
Financial Policy and Interest Rate Differences:
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to pause interest rate hikes, and it is considered difficult for the ECB (European Central Bank) to raise rates as well. This could make high-yielding U.S. bonds attractive, potentially strengthening the USD. This would limit the upside potential for EUR/USD.
Eurozone Fiscal Risk:
The complex fiscal situation in the Eurozone, especially in Italy, could contribute to the Euro’s decline. High public spending and growing fiscal deficits are factors increasing pressure on the Euro.
Considering these factors, I am likely to take a selling position on EUR/USD next week. Market uncertainty, weakness in European economic data, stability in U.S. financial policy, and fiscal risks in the Eurozone are expected to have a negative impact on the Euro. However, the market is always fluctuating, so this judgment needs to be reviewed continuously based on the latest data and market movements.
Reference site:
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/11/eurusd-forecast-november-2023/203083
https://blog.ibanfirst.com/en/november-2023-monthly-economic-outlook
BTCUSD
Recent Price Trends and Market Sentiment:
Bitcoin has been resting after a rally above $35,000, currently trading between $33,300 and $35,300. Market sentiment is improving, particularly with expectations for the approval of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF supporting Bitcoin.
Key Resistance and Support Levels:
Bitcoin is targeting significant resistance levels at $35,000, $35,300, and $37,500, with support levels at $34,177, $32,528, and $31,493.
Blockchain Technology Adoption:
Bitcoin and blockchain technology are thought to be moving towards mainstream adoption, with global institutions like JP Morgan, BNP Paribas, and Santander involved in various projects. The approval of a Bitcoin ETF is attracting market expectations, with further declines expected if approval is not granted, though currently, there is high anticipation for approval.
Integrating these factors, there may be a possibility of considering a cautious buying position on BTC/USD next week. The price of Bitcoin is supported by the recent improvement in market sentiment and expectations for ETF approval, with technical analysis also suggesting the possibility of a rise. However, Bitcoin still has high volatility, so it is important to closely monitor market trends and adjust strategies flexibly.
Reference site:
https://www.dailyfx.com/news/bitcoin-btc-usd-technical-outlook-golden-cross-pattern-fails-to-inspire-higher-prices-what-next-20231031.html
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Extraction date & time:
20231112 00:13
This time, ChatGPT simply made a mistake in its response (it was inconsistent to conclude with “buy” and mistakenly wrote “sell”), but when pointed out, it immediately admitted the mistake with an “I apologize” and promptly returned a corrected text. …Somehow, I feel like ChatGPT is a really good guy, and it’s becoming more and more familiar to me.
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