“The action that selling and buying stocks with chart 4”
Image extraction: DALL・E2
Warning:
The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.
In summary…
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Week of October 23 – 27, 2023,
SPX500: buy
USD/JPY: buy
EUR/USD: sell
BTC/USD: sell
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Results…
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SPX500：
（open：4238.50 – close：4120.22）
USD/JPY：
（open：149.83 – close：149.64）
EUR/USD：（open：1.0595 – close：1.0564）
BTC/USD：（open：29851.60 – close：33823.60）
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):
"SPX500
Inflation and Interest Rates:
One of the two major market catalysts that affected stock prices in the third quarter of 2023 was inflation and interest rates. The Consumer Price Index decreased from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to an annual rate of 3.7% in August. However, this is still significantly above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%. In September, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose to maintain the interest rate in its current target range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, stated that further interest rate hikes would not be necessary until they see “further progress” on inflation (1).
Possibility of Recession:
The U.S. yield curve has been inverted since the middle of 2022, which historically has been a strong indicator of a recession. In fact, the recession model of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York predicts a 60.8% probability of the U.S. entering a recession within the next 12 months. However, a persuasive argument for a possible soft landing is the resilience of the U.S. labor market. Employment increased by 187,000 in August, surpassing the expected 170,000, but the U.S. unemployment rate has significantly risen since July and is currently at its highest since February 2022, at 3.8%. (1)
Market Outlook:
For the fourth quarter of 2023, Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley mentioned that a rally in the S&P 500 is “probably likely”. (2) Wilson and other strategists state that many industry leaders predict a market recovery. (3) Furthermore, a technical analysis of the SPX500 shows some identified trends, but it’s still too early to rely on them. (4) Short-term bullish invalidation is set at 4279, with initial support in the range of 4299-4308. Negative news about China and information about a default by a major real estate company at the beginning of the week could potentially unsettle the stock market.
Taking these factors into account, the trends in inflation and interest rates, the possibility of a recession, and the market outlook might impact the movement of SPX500. The movements of inflation and interest rates, in particular, can significantly influence market movements due to the policy decisions of the Fed. Moreover, whether a soft landing of the U.S. economy is possible will be influenced by the resilience of the labor market and federal government policies.
In this hypothetical scenario, considering the market outlook, the risk of recession, and the trends in inflation and interest rates, managing risks and optimizing potential returns become crucial. Based on that, one might choose to buy the SPX500 at the beginning of the week on October 23, 2023. Given that the market outlook is relatively positive, especially with the anticipated rally of the S&P 500 in Q4, it might be a rational choice. (5)
1: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stock-market-outlook-and-forecast/
2: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-500-rally-q4-more-likely-than-not-despite-headwinds-morgan-stanley-2023-10-16/#:~:text=Oct%2016%20%28Reuters%29%20,said%20a%20majority%20of
3: https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/us-dollar-rates-gold-oil-sp-500-nasdaq-weekly-technical-outlook-10-16-2023/#:~:text=Chart%20Prepared%20by%20Michael%20Boutros%2C,invalidation%20set%20to%204279
4: https://jp.tradingview.com/symbols/SPX500/
5: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-500-rally-q4-more-likely-than-not-despite-headwinds-morgan-stanley-2023-10-16/#:~:text=Oct%2016%20%28Reuters%29%20,said%20a%20majority%20of
USD/JPY
U.S. Yields and Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy:
Throughout most of September 2023, the USD/JPY rose alongside the increase in U.S. yields, feeling resistance at 150 on October 3rd. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank has significantly tightened policy over the past 18 months. Yet, if the exchange rate clears the start range of October, it might attempt a retracement from the 2022 high of 151.95. (1)(2)
Japan’s Inflation and Bank of Japan (BOJ) Response:
While pressures of inflation in Japan are easing, the difference in yields with the U.S. is widening, posing a headache for the BOJ. What the BOJ chooses to do in the short term might be felt for the USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 in the future. (3)
Technical Levels:
The resistance levels for USD/JPY are set at 135.06, approximately 135.76, and 136.66 (key), while the support levels are 131.10/30, 129.54 (key), and 125.85-126.56. Since March’s extreme period, the Japanese yen has depreciated over 3.4% against the U.S. dollar, and the USD/JPY tested its resistance at a multi-week high the previous day. (4)
Short-term Forecast:
ING predicts that the Japanese yen will weaken against the U.S. dollar in the short term and will close at the 138 mark by year’s end. Additionally, a website predicts that USD/JPY will be trading at 146.882 12 months from now. (5)
Considering these factors, U.S. yields and Fed policy, Japan’s inflation and the BOJ’s response, and technical levels might impact the movement of the USD/JPY. Particularly, the movements in U.S. yields and Fed policy, along with the BOJ’s actions, can have significant effects on the exchange rate.
Integrating these factors and considering the short-term forecast indicating a weakening yen, in this hypothetical scenario, one might choose to buy the USD/JPY at the start of the week on October 23, 2023.
1: https://www.businessgo.hsbc.com/en/regionNotSupported
2: https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/us-dollar-forecast-usdjpy-steady-following-fed-chair-powell-speech-10-19-2023/#:~:text=US%20Dollar%20Outlook%3A%20USD%2FJPY%20USD%2FJPY,the%20opening%20range%20for%20October
3: https://www.forex.com/en/news-and-analysis/usd-jpy-nikkei-225-moment-of-truth-as-traders-grapple-with-boj-intervention-threat/#:~:text=For%20USD%2FJPY%20and%20Nikkei%20225%2C,differentials%20with%20the%20US%20surge
4: https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/japanese-yen-forecast-usd-jpy-2023-range-tightens-battle-lines-drawn-4-20-2023/#:~:text=USD%2FJPY%20rally%20vulnerable%20into%202023,week%20highs%20yesterday
5: https://capital.com/usd-to-jpy-forecast#:~:text=The%20website%20forecast%20USD%2FJPY%20to,bank%E2%80%99s%20USD%2FJPY%20forecast%20for%202023
EUR/USD
Eurozone Economic Outlook:
The Eurozone economy is decelerating as we approach the end of 2023, with many economists predicting a recession accompanied by high inflation. (1)
ECB (European Central Bank) Rate Hike and Its Impact:
The ECB raised its main refinancing rate by 0.25% on September 14th. Although this rate hike was not a surprise for many financial institutions, it led to instability in the EUR/USD, which sharply dropped after the rate announcement. (2)
U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy:
The U.S. housing market is sluggish, and results from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and GDP are under scrutiny. Positive growth statistics indicate that the Fed might raise the federal funds rate again in November. (2)(3)
Technical Analysis and Price Levels:
The price of EUR/USD has recently fallen sharply, indicating vulnerable support levels. The speculative price range is set between 1.04970 and 1.07980, and movements below the 1.08000 mark are being viewed with surprise. (4)(5)
Based on these factors, the slowdown in the Eurozone economy, the impact of the ECB’s rate hike, as well as U.S. economic data and the Fed’s policy, could influence the movement of the EUR/USD. Technical analysis is also crucial in understanding short-term EUR/USD movements.
Considering these factors and the technical price levels in this hypothetical scenario, and given the current bearish trend, one might choose to sell the EUR/USD at the beginning of the week on October 23, 2023.
1: https://capital.com/euro-forecast
2: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/10/eurusd-forecast-october-2023/201632
3: https://www.topfxbrokersreview.com/forex-forecast-forex-technical-outlook-for-23-october-2023-to-27-october-2023/#:~:text=Forex%20Forecast%20%26%20Forex%20Technical,builders%E2%80%99%20confidence%20in%20sustaining
4: https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/10/eurusd-forecast-october-2023/201632#:~:text=EUR%2FUSD%20Outlook%20for%20October%202023%3A,08000%20mark%20was%20rather%20surprising
5: https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/euro-technical-forecast-eur-usd-snaps-2023-q4-levels-9-29-2023/#:~:text=Euro%20breaks%20below%20yearly,range%20lows%20this%20week
BTC/USD
Price Trend:
In October 2023, Bitcoin’s price experienced a short-term pullback, declining slightly from an upper resistance of $28,000. This drop raises questions about the potential for recovery, impacting Bitcoin’s price. (1)
Price Forecast:
Forecasts for BTC’s price in October 2023 vary significantly, with predictions ranging from a low of $23,438.49 to a high of $61,126.03. (2) Another source predicts a price of $26,964 at the start of October, reaching $29,102 by month’s end. (3)
Weekly Forecast and Market Sentiment:
As of October 20, 2023, Bitcoin’s price is trading around $29,000, positioning the cryptocurrency at a crucial point. This price level is considered pivotal in determining the trajectory of the 2023 rally. (4)
Market Outlook:
The outlook for 2023 is bearish, and there are suggestions that another situation similar to FTX could lead to a decline in Bitcoin’s price. (5)
Considering these factors holistically, the short-term price of Bitcoin appears to be unstable, indicating a risk of decline. Market predictions and technical analyses are essential in understanding the price movement of Bitcoin, and it’s vital to make decisions based on these considerations in hypothetical scenarios.
In such a hypothetical scenario, given the market’s instability and bearish outlook, one might choose to sell BTC/USD at the start of the week on October 23, 2023.
1: https://coinpedia.org/price-prediction/bitcoin-price-prediction/#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Price%20Prediction%20for%20October,questioning%20the%20recovery%20rally%20possibility
2: https://digitalcoinprice.com/forecast/bitcoin/2023
3: https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd#:~:text=Bitcoin%20price%20prediction%20for%20October,USD%20predictions%20for%20November%202023
4: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-weekly-forecast-btc-bulls-can-make-or-break-2023-rally-202310200727#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Weekly%20Forecast%3A%20BTC%20bulls,A%20weekly%20candlestick
5: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567856-bitcoin-and-crypto-what-expect-2023"
Extraction date & time:
20231022 00:41
Based on the number of cited sources, it seems that ChatGPT typically checks about five sources and then consolidates the information from them to provide an answer. Many of the references seem to be from major sites like Reuters. However, the decision to buy or sell is rarely explicitly stated in the sources, so it seems that ChatGPT itself is making that judgment. That’s why I think it would be interesting to continue collecting this data over a certain period.
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