“A stock trader 6” David Hockney tasted
Image extraction: DALL・E2
Warning:
The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.
In summary…
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Week of December 11 – 15, 2023,
SPX500: sell
USD/JPY: sell
EUR/USD: sell
BTC/USD: buy
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Results…
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SPX500：
（open：4612.72 – close：4723.92）
USD/JPY：
（open：144.90 – close：142.17）
EUR/USD：（open：1.0758 – close：1.0893）
BTC/USD：（open：47947.48 – close：51354.40）
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):
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SPX500
According to an analysis by StockCharts.com, the S&P 500 is stagnating at 4600 points, but the recent rise is considered strong. It has recovered three months’ worth of losses in five weeks from the October low, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has also become overbought. However, in the short term, this overbought state could be a negative, especially if the RSI falls below the 70 level, suggesting the possibility of a pullback. In the medium to long term, this overbought state often occurs during a broad market rally, which is a positive sign.
On the other hand, an analysis by Seeking Alpha predicts that the bull market that started in 2023 will continue into 2024. According to this analysis, the SPX price is expected to rise to 5300 points, and the PE (Price to Earnings ratio) is expected to reach 26.
Another analysis by Seeking Alpha states that the movement of the S&P 500 is bullish, and in the short term, exceeding 4607 points will be bullish, and pullbacks after adjustments are seen as buying opportunities. However, the forecast advises refraining from buying if an impulsive pullback occurs.
Based on these analyses, it is suggested that the S&P 500 may experience a temporary pullback in the short term, but is expected to continue a bullish trend in the medium to long term. Therefore, a strategy could be to take a selling position at the beginning of the week and buy back if a pullback occurs towards the weekend. However, since the market always contains uncertainties, these predictions should be considered just one perspective.
reference:
https://stockcharts.com/articles/mindfulinvestor/2023/12/will-the-sp-500-push-above-460-509.html
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4656818-a-bull-market-started-in-2023-as-predicted-and-is-predicted-to-continue-in-2024
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4655649-sp500-bullish-unless-week-starting-4th-december-technical-analysis
USD/JPY
According to an analysis by DailyForex on December 5th, USD/JPY has recovered to the resistance level of 147.45, but may maintain its current bearish stable mode ahead of the release of key reports on the U.S. labor market. Additionally, the decrease in U.S. inflation rate and signs of change in the Bank of Japan’s ultra-easy policy are providing positive momentum to the yen.
The analysis on December 6th indicates that the ISM Services Sector Survey exceeded expectations, confirming the overall health of the U.S. economy and curbing market participants’ excessive expectations for a U.S. rate cut. As a result, this may support a rise in the dollar.
On December 7th, signs of policy change by the Bank of Japan continue, showing that the yen is gaining strong profits against the dollar. USD/JPY has fallen to near its three-month low of 146.40. Furthermore, the U.S. ADP employment report came in below market expectations, suggesting a softening labor market and supporting expectations for a rate cut. Depending on the results of Friday’s employment statistics, this could lead to a further decline in the value of USD/JPY.
According to an analysis by Milton Markets on December 5th, USD/JPY is overall in a downtrend, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level acting as support and bringing a temporary rebound. However, the fundamental downtrend is maintained, and a selling strategy during the rebound is considered appropriate.
Combining these analyses, USD/JPY is likely to continue a bearish trend in the short term, but there may be fluctuations due to economic indicators such as U.S. employment statistics. Therefore, a strategy of taking a selling position at the beginning of the week and adjusting the position according to market trends after the data release can be considered. However, it’s important to understand that these predictions are just one viewpoint, considering market uncertainties.
reference:
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/december-05-2023-usdjpy-analysis/204663
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/december-06-2023-usdjpy-analysis/204736
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/december-07-2023-usdjpy-analysis/204802
https://miltonmarkets.com/markets-analysis/markets-20231207-en/
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/usdjpy-forecast-7-december-2023/204769
EUR/USD
Possibility of Continuing Downtrend: There is an analysis that EUR/USD has fallen below its lowest level in three weeks and is continuing its downtrend. Moreover, it has fallen below the 1.08 level and is moving below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Presence of Technical Support: Just below the current level lies the 200-day EMA, suggesting strong technical support. The market is somewhat oversold, and there are signs of support within the current range.
Impact of Economic Indicators: The lower than expected inflation rate in the Eurozone could change the market’s view on the direction of the Eurozone’s monetary policy. This could create downward pressure on the Euro.
Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy: The market may stabilize before the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, but could become more volatile after its release.
Based on these analyses, as a short-term trading strategy for EUR/USD, it would be reasonable to consider selling positions, taking into account the current downtrend and technical support. However, adjustments to positions may be necessary depending on the release of economic indicators and market trends. Moreover, as the market always contains uncertainties, these predictions should be regarded as just one viewpoint.
reference:
https://blog.roboforex.com/blog/2023/12/06/eur-usd-deepens-decline-overview-for-december-06-2023/
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/eurusd-forecast-7-december-2023/204768
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/december-04-2023-analysis-of-euro-price-against-the-dollar/204597
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/eurusd-forecast-4-december-2023/204586
BTC/USD
Bullish Market Trend: The recent BTC market shows an upward trend, especially after breaking the significant level of $38,300, indicating signs of a rise. The market is in a bullish trend, with $40,000 being the next major target.
Potential Impact of ETF Acceptance: The acceptance of ETFs in the United States could be a tailwind for Bitcoin. This is a factor that could positively influence Bitcoin’s price.
Importance of Technical Support: Bitcoin appears to have formed an important support level around $40,000. This level is also psychologically significant and coincides with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This is likely to attract the attention of technical traders.
The Relationship Between the U.S. Dollar and Bitcoin: The movement of the U.S. dollar is a crucial factor affecting Bitcoin’s performance. The fluctuation of the U.S. dollar following the release of Friday’s employment statistics could cause short-term volatility, potentially offering more favorable entry opportunities in the Bitcoin market.
Long-term Outlook: An analysis by FX.co indicates that Bitcoin’s bullish trend is continuing. Particularly, it emphasizes $48,200 as the next target.
Combining these analyses, as a short-term trading strategy for BTC/USD, it would be reasonable to consider buying positions, taking into account the current bullish market trend and technical support. However, as the Bitcoin market is inherently volatile, a cautious trading strategy is necessary. Also, it’s important to understand that these predictions are just one viewpoint, considering market uncertainties.
reference:
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/btcusd-forecast-4-december-2023/204599
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2023/12/btcusd-forecast-7-december-2023/204766
https://www.fx.co/en/analysis/348598
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Extraction date & time:
20231109 23:35
As you can see from the USD/JPY section, the latest information it browsed was from December 7th, and it does not take into account the results of the employment statistics. It’s unavoidable that there were no articles written after the release of the employment statistics, but still, the analysis feels somewhat insufficient.
However, since I am committed to ongoing monitoring, I will not wait for such articles to be published and then redo the forecast, as that would be against the rules.
I will be on personal holiday from next week, so the ChatGPT Economic Forecasts updates will also take a break. The updates will resume with the data from January 15th to 19th, 2024.
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