“The institutional investor 3”
Image extraction: DALL・E2
Warning:
The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.
In summary…
ーーーーーーーーーーーーーー
Week of Feburary 12 – 16, 2024,
SPX500: sell
USD/JPY: sell
EUR/USD: buy
BTC/USD: buy
ーーーーーーーーーーーーーー
Results…
ーーーーーーーーーーーーーー
SPX500：
（open：5026.55 – close：4999.67）
USD/JPY：
（open：149.20 – close：150.17）
EUR/USD：（open：1.0780 – close：1.0775）
BTC/USD：（open：48126.36 – close：51995.20）
ーーーーーーーーーーーーーー
ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):
"
SPX500
The position I would take on the S&P 500 (SPX500) at the beginning of next week (February 12, 2024) would be based on the current market fundamentals and recent trends. Currently, the S&P 500 has reached a historic milestone, surpassing 5,000 points for the first time. The market’s movement after such a significant milestone becomes very unpredictable, but it is possible to devise some strategies based on fundamentals and recent trends.
Position Consideration
Buying Position Consideration:
The market exhibits a certain optimism as the S&P 500 surpasses the 5,000-point milestone, with stock prices, especially those of mega-cap stocks, continuing to rise. Such optimism could push the market further up in the short term.
About two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly earnings growth of around 9%, indicating market strength.
Selling Position Consideration:
However, the valuation of the S&P 500 has become very high, with its forward price-to-earnings ratio reaching 20.4, the highest level since February 2022. This high valuation brings a sense of caution to the market, especially from a long-term perspective.
There are concerns about the narrowing market breadth, as the number of stocks participating in the rally has decreased, even though the S&P 500 is updating new highs. This suggests that the recent rise may not be sustainable.
Conclusion and Strategy
Taking these points into account, taking a selling position seems to be a rational strategy considering the high valuation levels and the narrowing market breadth. This is especially true after the market updates historical highs, as profit-taking and market adjustments are more likely to occur. However, it is important to liquidate positions by the end of the week to avoid long-term risks, as market optimism and short-term movements cannot be ignored.
This analysis is based on information from www.investing.com and reuters.com.
USD/JPY
When taking a position on USD/JPY, it is necessary to consider the latest market trends, economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical factors. USD/JPY, which represents the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen, is closely related to the Asian economy, especially Japan’s economic condition, and serves as a barometer for the global economy.
Buying Consideration
US Economic Indicators:
If US economic indicators are strong, the US dollar may strengthen. Inflation rates, employment statistics, and GDP growth rates are particularly important indicators.
Japanese Economic Policy:
If the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s policy is accommodative, or if Japan’s economic indicators are weak, the Japanese yen may depreciate.
Risk Sentiment: In a risk-on market environment, investors may flow into the US dollar in search of higher yields.
Selling Consideration
US Interest Rate Outlook:
If US interest rates are expected to decline, the appeal of the US dollar may decrease, potentially leading to a drop in USD/JPY.
Improvement in Japan’s Economy:
If Japan’s economic indicators improve and the Bank of Japan seeks to normalize monetary policy, the Japanese yen may be supported.
Geopolitical Risks:
If geopolitical tensions rise, the Japanese yen, considered a safe currency, may be bought.
Based on the current market situation and available information, I might consider a selling position on USD/JPY.
It is important to always pay attention to market news and analysis and be sensitive to major events and announcements in the economic calendar. Additionally, positions need to be adjusted flexibly according to market fluctuations.
This analysis is based on information from dailyfx.com and Investing.com.
EUR/USD
When considering a position on EUR/USD for the next week, it is necessary to analyze the recent economic situation and market trends in detail. Based on the current information, I might consider a buying position on EUR/USD. Several factors are involved in this decision.
Economic Situation and Market Trends:
Eurozone Inflation Rate:
The inflation rate in the Eurozone has exceeded expectations, which could lead to a strengthening of the euro, especially if the central bank adopts a more hawkish stance than expected.
US Economic Indicators:
US economic indicators, especially employment-related data, have shown resilience. While this usually supports the dollar, it may already be priced in.
US Monetary Policy:
Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy are fluctuating, especially as expectations of rate cuts seem to be receding. This might mean strength for the dollar in the short term, but it increases uncertainty in the long term, potentially favoring a buying position in EUR/USD.
Analysis and Strategy:
Considering these factors, a buying position in EUR/USD might be favorable. However, this decision needs to be made with caution from a risk management perspective, and the strategy may need to be adjusted flexibly based on market trends and economic indicator releases. Additionally, the market next week may be particularly sensitive to economic indicator releases and central bank statements, so positions should always be adjusted based on the latest information.
This analysis is based on information from dailyfx.com, Investing.com, and finance.yahoo.com.
BTC/USD
Regarding a position on BTC/USD, considering the current market environment and the latest trends, I might consider taking a buying position at the beginning of next week. This decision is based on the following factors:
Bitcoin Price Trends:
Recent reports indicate that Bitcoin has surpassed $47,000, showing a consistent upward trend. This suggests positive market sentiment and the possibility of short-term increases.
Impact of Spot ETFs:
The approval of Bitcoin-related spot ETFs in the US has had a positive impact on the market, providing a tailwind for Bitcoin prices.
Market Liquidity and Trading Volume:
The increase in trading volume due to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs contributes to improved market liquidity, supporting further price increases for Bitcoin.
Analysis and Strategy:
Evaluating these factors collectively, it seems likely that Bitcoin prices could rise in the short term. The positive market response to the approval of spot ETFs, in particular, could boost investor confidence and promote price increases.
However, the Bitcoin market is highly volatile, and prices can fluctuate sharply due to unexpected news or changes in market sentiment, necessitating careful risk management and position adjustment. Additionally, investing in Bitcoin involves high risk, so investment amounts should be carefully decided, and market trends should be closely monitored.
This analysis is based on information from finance.yahoo.com, coindesk.com, and seekingalpha.com.
"
Extraction date & time:
20240211 20:45
The ChatGPT Economic Forecasts has now reached the 30th week since its inception. In another 8 weeks, it will have continued for a year, at which point I believe the data from this endeavor will be sufficient. In the end, I plan to create a comprehensive results and summary page.
ーーーーーーーーーーーーーー
