“The institutional investor 8”
Image extraction: DALL・E2
Warning:
The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.
In summary…
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Week of March 18 – 22, 2024,
SPX500: sell
USD/JPY: buy
EUR/USD: sell
BTC/USD: buy
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Results…
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SPX500：
（open：5127.02 – close：5233.27）
USD/JPY：
（open：148.91 – close：151.41）
EUR/USD：（open：1.0888 – close：1.0808）
BTC/USD：（open：68232.75 – close：63420.20）
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):
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SPX500
I will choose to sell the SPX500 at the start of the week of March 18, 2024. The main reason for this decision is based on the current market fundamentals and technical analysis.
First, Goldman Sachs’ outlook for the S&P 500 index in 2024 predicts about a 6% return for the year, which is a modest forecast compared to the historical average returns. This return expectation is because, although the U.S. economic growth is expected to be higher than anticipated, high stock valuations are partly offsetting this growth. In particular, Goldman Sachs notes that the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is trading at the 87th percentile since 1976, suggesting the index may be overvalued. Moreover, while the Federal Reserve is likely to have ended rate hikes, it is considered unlikely to start rate cuts until the end of 2024.
Additionally, from a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500 is currently seeing an increase in net short positions among clients, indicating a cautious market sentiment. This means investors are avoiding risk and anticipating a potential decline in stock prices. In particular, the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows sell signals, and pivot point analysis indicates levels of support and resistance. Movements based on these levels also support taking a sell position.
However, this analysis is based on the current market situation and the latest economic data. Actual trading requires constant attention to real-time information and market fluctuations. Also, it is crucial to incorporate your risk management strategy in investment decisions. This advice is merely an analysis, and making actual investment decisions requires further information and analysis.
(Reference: goldmansachs.com, dailyfx.com)
USD/JPY
I will choose to buy USD/JPY at the start of the week of March 18, 2024. The reason behind this decision is based on the current economic data and market sentiment, particularly the difference in monetary policies between the U.S. and Japan.
First, wages in Japan reaching a 30-year high has increased market expectations for a policy review by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This situation may temporarily support the value of the Japanese yen but suggests a weakening of the yen in the medium to long term due to uncertainties brought about by a BoJ policy review.
On the other hand, concerns over inflation risks are rising in the U.S., supporting the value of the U.S. dollar. High inflation usually prompts an increase in interest rates to maintain the currency’s value. Especially if recent U.S. inflation data shows results higher than expected, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates could increase, potentially leading to a rise in USD/JPY.
Market sentiment analysis indicates an increase in net long positions (buy positions) for USD/JPY, suggesting many traders anticipate a rise in the U.S. dollar against the yen. Levels of support and resistance also suggest there is room for USD/JPY prices to rise from current levels.
However, this analysis is based on the current market situation and the latest economic data. Actual trading requires constant attention to real-time information and market fluctuations. Also, incorporating your risk management strategy in investment decisions is crucial. This advice is merely an analysis, and making actual investment decisions requires further information and analysis.
(Reference: dailyfx.com)
EUR/USD
Based on the current market analysis and information, the recommended strategy for EUR/USD is to sell. Market sentiment analysis indicates that, although there is an increase in net long (overbought) positions among traders, this could be a contrarian indicator suggesting weakness in EUR/USD. Furthermore, reports have indicated that executives of the European Central Bank (ECB) have called for two rate cuts before summer, likely putting pressure on the euro.
Additionally, concerns over inflation risks are rising in the U.S., supporting the value of the dollar. While market expectations for the future of U.S. monetary policy are strengthening the dollar, forecasts of ECB rate cuts are weakening the euro. Technical analysis of EUR/USD, considering the current market positions and levels of support and resistance, also suggests a short-term decline in EUR/USD. Based on this analysis, taking a sell position on EUR/USD appears to be an appropriate trading strategy until the end of the week.
(Reference: dailyfx.com)
BTC/USD
Based on the latest information, I recommend buying BTC/USD at the start of next week (March 18, 2024). A significant factor behind this decision is the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission). The SEC has approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs, making it easier for mainstream investors to purchase Bitcoin, expected to add further upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin’s price has risen 70% since October, driven by expectations surrounding the spot ETF approval. Analysts and market experts predict this trend indicates a strong movement for Bitcoin, potentially reaching $150,000 within the next 12 months. This approval officially introduces major institutional investors like BlackRock and Fidelity into the digital asset space, increasing expectations for further rises in Bitcoin.
The market’s response to Bitcoin has been subdued so far, possibly because investors are buying the rumor and selling the news. This means investors have not reacted to actual news after speculation led Bitcoin to outperform the S&P 500 and the “Magnificent Seven” group of mega-cap stocks in 2023. However, the approval of spot ETFs not only for Bitcoin but also for other cryptocurrency price tracking products could pave the way for further price increases.
Therefore, considering these fundamentals and the positive market outlook, buying BTC/USD is recommended. However, it’s important to take appropriate risk management strategies due to Bitcoin’s high volatility.
(Reference: finance.yahoo.com)
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Extraction date & time:
20240317 19:06
I don’t know the reason, but sometimes, among these four analyses, only EUR/USD is oddly simplistic. It has happened several times before, not just this time. If I don’t prompt to “please continue,” it ends up concluding in one sentence, almost ignoring the instruction to provide a detailed analysis. This hasn’t happened with the other three pairs so far. It’s curious what kind of algorithm effect this is.
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