“The institutional investor 9”
Image extraction: DALL・E2
Warning:
The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.
In summary…
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Week of March 25 – 29, 2024,
SPX500: buy
USD/JPY: sell
EUR/USD: sell
BTC/USD: buy
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Results…
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SPX500：
（open：5238.95 – close：5252.17）
USD/JPY：（open：151.42 – close：151.31）
EUR/USD：（open：1.0806 – close：1.0789）
BTC/USD：（open：66055.40 – close：69617.18）
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):
"
SPX500
I will choose to take a long position on the SPX500 at the start of the week on March 25, 2024. Below, I explain the reasons based on fundamental analysis.
Economic Indicators and Market Trends
Recent economic data and market trends suggest the sustained strength of the US economy. In particular, the Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations and rose to 52.5. This indicates that manufacturing activity is expanding, demonstrating the health of this sector of the economy.
Additionally, the US housing market is also vibrant, with existing home sales increasing by 9.5% month-over-month in February. These positive economic data suggest that consumer confidence and spending power remain strong, supporting overall economic growth.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains bullish amid expectations for continued growth, driven by a surge in tech stocks and signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 has recently been testing new highs, reflecting market participants’ continued positive outlook on US stocks.
Technical Analysis
Technical indicators for the S&P 500 also continue to show a bullish trend. For example, the recent performance of the SPX has shown an increase of 0.32%, and the market volatility index (VIX) has decreased by 0.92%. This indicates a reduction in market anxiety and an increased willingness to take risks.
Summary
Integrating the results of the fundamental analysis, economic indicators, market sentiment, and technical analysis, I judge a bullish stance on the SPX500 to be reasonable. With a solid economic foundation and continued positive market sentiment, taking a long position on the SPX500 at the start of the week on March 25, 2024, is considered appropriate.
Please bear in mind that this analysis is based on the current market situation and available data, and the market could be influenced by unpredictable factors.
(Reference: fxempire.com)
USD/JPY
I will choose to take a short position on USD/JPY at the start of the week on March 25, 2024. Below, I explain the reasons focusing on fundamental factors.
Economic Indicators and Policy
Recent economic indicators and central bank trends are important factors affecting USD/JPY. Japan’s GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, recording a 0.3% growth quarter-over-quarter. This represents a recovery from the previous -0.3%, suggesting the strength of the Japanese economy.
Central Bank Policy
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has hinted at moving away from negative interest rate policies, but the yen has remained weak, leading to bids against the USD. This situation indicates short-term weakness for the yen, but in the long term, policy changes by the BoJ could strengthen the yen.
Market Sentiment
The current market sentiment for USD/JPY is bullish, with many traders taking long positions. However, such one-sided market sentiment also suggests the possibility of a reversal, especially with important economic indicators and policy announcements scheduled.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis of USD/JPY also observes certain levels of resistance and deviations from past trends, indicating uncertainty in short-term price movements and calling for a cautious trading strategy.
Summary
Combining these fundamental factors, economic indicators, central bank policies, market sentiment, and technical analysis, I consider it appropriate to take a short position on USD/JPY in the short term. However, the market is always volatile, so investment should be made cautiously. Also, this is just an example of analysis, and actual trading requires considering many factors.
(Reference: dailyfx.com)
EUR/USD
I will choose to take a short position on EUR/USD at the start of the week on March 25, 2024. Below, I explain the reasons focusing on fundamental factors.
Economic Indicators
Starting with the analysis of EUR/USD, recent economic indicators are very important. The consumer inflation expectation in the Eurozone was previously set at 4.5%, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be 0.3% quarter-over-quarter, improving from the previous -0.3%. Although the economic indicators in the Eurozone are showing signs of improvement, challenges remain.
Market Sentiment
The market sentiment for EUR/USD is currently bearish, with many traders holding net short positions. This suggests a high likelihood of a decline in EUR/USD, providing a reason for taking a short position.
Technical Analysis
From a technical analysis perspective, EUR/USD is considered to be in a downtrend. Looking at recent movements, the rate of EUR/USD is gradually declining, particularly as reported by Traders Web, with EUR/USD approaching yesterday’s lows at around 1.0840.
Summary
Based on the economic indicators, market sentiment, and technical analysis, it is appropriate to take a short position on EUR/USD. Weak economic indicators and a bearish market sentiment are the main factors adding downward pressure. However, the market always contains uncertainties, and this analysis is based on data at a single point in time, requiring cautious judgment based on the latest information.
(References: dailyfx.com, finance.yahoo.co.jp)
BTC/USD
I will choose to take a long position on BTC/USD at the start of the week on March 25, 2024. Below, I explain the reasons focusing on fundamental factors.
Market Overview and Trends
Recent reports indicate that Bitcoin continues its bullish market trend, showing a 12% price increase particularly after the FOMC meeting. Such movements demonstrate market confidence and support a long-term optimistic view on Bitcoin.
Social Media and Market Sentiment
According to social media analysis, mentions of Bitcoin are very active, with many posts exhibiting a bullish sentiment. On Twitter, bullish sentiments account for 57.24%, reflecting a favorable market view.
Technical Analysis
Looking at Bitcoin’s price movements, it has increased by 0.31% over the past 24 hours, although it has seen a 3.61% decrease over the past week. Despite this short-term price decrease, Bitcoin’s price remains within 10.81% of its all-time high, suggesting market resilience.
Energy Consumption and Environmental Issues
There has been much debate over Bitcoin’s energy consumption, but estimates suggest that the use of renewable energy in mining is between 40-75%. This indicates positive improvements towards addressing environmental concerns.
Conclusion
Combining these factors, Bitcoin is currently enjoying bullish market sentiment, and despite short-term price fluctuations, it holds the potential to maintain or increase its value. Therefore, taking a long position on BTC/USD is deemed appropriate. However, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments should be made cautiously.
(References: cointelegraph.com, coinbase.com, coinmarketcap.com, finance.yahoo.com, coindesk.com)
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Extraction date & time:
20240324 22:21
This time, ChatGPT is recommending a short position on USD/JPY. It’s been about a year since I started asking ChatGPT about market sentiment, and this is probably the first time it’s recommended contrarian trading (when looking at the chart technically). The emphasis seems to be on the BOJ changing its policy interest rates, and indeed, it has written as such. It’s fair to say that this is a rather bold decision like never before. In other words, it has analyzed that many FX market participants, including major sites, are targeting a short on USD/JPY, making the outcome something to look forward to.
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