“The institutional investor 10”
Image extraction: DALL・E2
Warning:
The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.
In summary…
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Week of April 1 – 5, 2024,
SPX500: buy
USD/JPY: sell
EUR/USD: sell
BTC/USD: buy
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Results…
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SPX500：
（open：5272.40 – close：5208.81）
USD/JPY：（open：151.29 – close：151.61）
EUR/USD：（open：1.0788 – close：1.0836）
BTC/USD：（open：70830.22 – close：67648.70）
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):
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SPX500
When considering trading the S&P 500 (SPX500) next week, several factors need to be taken into account. Based on the latest market information, economic indicators, and trends in financial policy, I choose to buy SPX500. Here are the reasons.
First, the S&P 500 has recorded consecutive monthly increases recently, indicating that the market trend is bullish (Yahoo Finance). Furthermore, John Stoltzfus, the Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, has raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,500 points. This is based on the fact that the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times without driving the economy into a recession, and the S&P 500’s corporate earnings were strong in the last two quarters of the previous year (Yahoo Finance).
Moreover, market analysis suggests that the technical indicators for the S&P 500 are bullish. There are views that AI-driven market excitement, US elections, and Federal Reserve policies are the main drivers (DailyFX). Additionally, recent reports have shown that the S&P 500 is continuously hitting record highs, reflecting the strength of the market and investor optimism (DailyFX).
Additionally, considering the fundamental aspects of the economy, indicators like the US labor market and consumer spending, which remain strong, are supporting factors for the market. These factors could directly affect corporate earnings and investor sentiment, potentially supporting the price of SPX500.
However, this analysis does not eliminate the unpredictability of the market. Geopolitical tensions, sudden economic data, or abrupt changes in financial policy could always change the market’s direction. Therefore, from a risk management perspective, it’s important to carefully consider when taking a position and implement appropriate risk measures.
In conclusion, based on the current market trends and fundamentals, I choose to buy SPX500. However, this decision should be revisited as needed, depending on future market conditions and changes in economic indicators.
USD/JPY
Regarding USD/JPY trading next week, I choose to take a short position. This decision is based on the latest economic data, market analysis, and fundamentals.
Reason 1: Improvement in Japanese Economic Indicators
The latest Tankan survey data indicates some improvement in the Japanese economy. In particular, the large manufacturers’ non-manufacturing index exceeded expectations and improved from the previous survey results. Also, the large companies’ capital expenditure forecast shows a positive trend (DailyFX). These indicators suggest that the Japanese economy is on a solid recovery path, which could be good for the yen.
Reason 2: Bearish Technical Analysis for USD/JPY
According to the latest technical analysis, USD/JPY is showing bearish signals (DailyFX). Analysis of support and resistance levels, pivot point analysis, and market sentiment suggests that there is currently a strong move towards buying the yen. These analytical results serve as a basis for taking a short position, predicting yen strength in the short term.
Reason 3: Market Sentiment and Liquidity
The USD/JPY pair is highly liquid and seen as an indicator of the health of Asian economies. Recent analysis of market sentiment and liquidity indicates that traders are currently bearish on USD/JPY, which could support the yen (DailyFX).
Overall Judgment and Risk
Considering these factors, it is appropriate to take a short position on USD/JPY next week. However, this strategy could be affected by market uncertainties or unexpected events, such as geopolitical risks, sudden economic data releases, or changes in financial policy. Therefore, it’s important to always check the latest market analysis and news and implement an appropriate risk management strategy when taking a position.
These analyses are based on the latest reports and data from DailyFX and Yahoo Finance, but it is recommended to also consider your own research and expert opinions when making investment decisions.
EUR/USD
Thinking about EUR/USD trading next week, I choose to take a short position. This decision is based on the latest economic indicators, market analysis, and fundamentals.
Reason 1: Lower Economic Growth Forecast for Germany
The GDP growth rate for Germany in 2024 is forecasted to be just 0.1%. This indicates that Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, is hardly growing, which is a negative factor for EUR/USD (DailyFX).
Reason 2: Mixed Market Sentiment
The market sentiment for EUR/USD is mixed, with investors divided. In such an environment of uncertainty, it’s wise to adopt a risk-averse stance and wait (DailyFX) (DailyFX).
Reason 3: European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy
Recent reports indicate that the ECB has kept interest rates steady and adjusted market expectations for future rate cuts. This suggests that the ECB is considering a decrease in inflation rates and growth prospects but does not imply immediate rate cuts (Yahoo Finance).
Conclusion and Risk
Considering these factors as a whole, it was determined that taking a short position on EUR/USD is reasonable. However, market conditions can change significantly with future economic data releases and changes in financial policy, so caution is needed when holding a position. Investing always involves risks, so it’s crucial to closely follow the latest market analysis and news and be mindful of risk management while trading.
BTC/USD
Regarding BTC/USD trading next week, I choose to take a long position. This decision is based on recent market trends, fundamentals, and technical analysis.
Reason 1: Recent Price Trends
BTC/USD has risen approximately 14.63% in the past month. Such a strong upward trend indicates that bullish sentiment continues in the market, making a short-term long position potentially effective (Cointelegraph).
Reason 2: Market Cap and Trading Volume
Bitcoin’s market cap has reached about $1.4 trillion, with a trading volume of about 84.75 million BTC in the past 24 hours. These figures indicate the health and liquidity of the Bitcoin market, meaning investor confidence is ongoing (Cointelegraph).
Reason 3: Fundamentals and Technical Analysis
Recent analysis suggests that the current imbalance between supply and demand is one of the main factors driving Bitcoin higher. Additionally, BTC is looking towards new all-time highs, suggesting further upward potential (DailyFX). The levels of support and resistance have also been updated, and current pivot point analysis indicates that BTC has more room to rise (DailyFX).
Overall Judgment and Risk
Considering these factors collectively, it’s reasonable to take a long position on BTC/USD next week. However, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and unexpected news or events can significantly impact prices, so caution is needed when holding a position. It’s important to closely follow the latest market analysis and news and be mindful of risk management while trading.
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Extraction date & time:
20240331 21:19
For now, this concludes the ChatGPT economic forecasts. There were periods when measurement was impossible, but with this, I have approximately one year’s worth of data since early April of last year. The summary will be posted separately.
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