\nCommodities: November 14, 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n
This observation is about short-term and long-term U.S. bonds (ETFs), and commodities like silver, palladium, and platinum, and watching how they will move in value. By the way, they are denominated in U.S. dollars and euros.<\/p>\n
Observing, or rather, since I’ve already bought them, I will experience the results such as profit\/loss. Emotions accompanied by joy or pain make it easier to remember.<\/p>\n
U.S. bonds at historically low levels<\/h3>\n
Since their issuance in 1775 (before the founding of the United States in 1776 by the Second Continental Congress), the U.S. bond market, both short-term and long-term, seems to have experienced its worst crash in 2022~2023. It’s said to be a scorched earth.<\/p>\n
Just as a country turned to wasteland by war has no choice but to rebuild, a global market usually recovers after a shock. It’s easier to bet on values returning to normal.<\/p>\n
The question is when this recovery period will come.<\/p>\n
I positioned myself thinking it would be when U.S. inflation eases, meaning the economy cools down a bit, and interest rate cuts begin.<\/p>\n
![\"Silver](\"https:\/\/inv.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/710x450-s014-min.png\")
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![\"Palladium](\"https:\/\/inv.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/710x450-s012-min.png\")
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![\"Platinum](\"https:\/\/inv.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/710x450-s013-min.png\")
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The buying opportunity for commodities<\/h3>\n
For silver, palladium, and platinum, the most important decision was that their prices seemed low when looking at long-term trends.<\/p>\n
Then there’s the currency exchange. It seems like a winning time as the U.S. dollar, which has been rising for a long time due to U.S. inflation control, seems about to turn downwards.<\/p>\n
When the value of the U.S. dollar falls, commodity prices tend to rise.<\/p>\n
It’s easier to understand if I say that what used to cost 23 U.S. dollars per ounce of silver will require more U.S. dollars, like 25, 28, … as the value of the dollar drops.<\/p>\n
Of course, it’s not as simple as that, but at least it can be said that there is a conducive environment for prices to rise.<\/p>\n
Timing of purchase<\/h3>\n
There’s a market adage, “Leave the head and tail,” but this time I’m slightly ahead of the game.<\/p>\n
In other words, it might have been too early, but I thought it was about time, given that I’ve been making tentative purchases of bonds.<\/p>\n
Feeling of the position<\/h3>\n
This is purely subjective, but when I take an early adopter position, I can usually tell if a trade will go well based on whether it immediately starts making a profit or incurs a loss. This applies to swing trading too.<\/p>\n
A trade that starts with a loss right after positioning suggests it wasn’t the best timing for entry. Such trades usually end in a stop-loss.<\/p>\n
Of course, it’s influenced by the fact that I am a trend-follower and tend to set tight stop-loss lines.<\/p>\n
This time, both U.S. bonds and commodities started off well, so I’m writing this in high spirits.<\/p>\n
Planned closing period<\/h3>\n
These positions should obviously be settled by the time the U.S. interest rate cut cycle ends.<\/p>\n
Or rather, they should already be closed by the time the media starts talking about the end of the rate cuts.<\/p>\n
In other words, I plan to decide based on the timing rather than reaching a price target.<\/p>\n
Also, I’m considering keeping U.S. bonds as part of my portfolio without necessarily settling them.<\/p>\n
The results will be written as a postscript, but when that will be is uncertain as of now (December 2023). The longer it takes, the longer I can hold them, so I hope that’s the case.<\/p>\n
Addendum (Nov 19, 2025):
\nI sold all of my commodities on October 27, 2025.<\/p>\n
Since I bought silver, palladium, and platinum on November 14, 2023, I ended up holding them for 1 year and 11 months\u2014712 days to be exact. I hadn\u2019t written this down before, but I had been holding gold since July 2, 2021, even though I switched accounts along the way, so the holding period came to about four years and four months.<\/p>\n
As of November 19, 2025, gold has completed a rebound to about half of its plunge and is trending upward again. But that doesn\u2019t mean I feel like buying it back\u2014one look at the monthly chart completely kills that urge.<\/p>\n