{"id":2013,"date":"2025-06-05T18:10:54","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T16:10:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/?p=2013"},"modified":"2025-06-05T18:10:54","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T16:10:54","slug":"s008","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/stocks\/s008\/","title":{"rendered":"The U.S. Treasury chart is starting to look pretty ugly"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u300eScenery of New York City\u300f
\nimage extraction: Firefly<\/p>\n

EDV<\/strong>
\nSeeks to track the performance of the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury STRIPS 20\u201330 Year Equal Par Bond Index.
\n\uff08Citation: investor.vanguard.com<\/a>\uff09
\n\"EDV<\/p>\n

TLT<\/strong>
\nThe investment seeks to track the investment results of the ICE\u00ae U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the “underlying index”).
\n\uff08Citation: investor.vanguard.com<\/a>\uff09
\n\"TLT<\/p>\n

IEF<\/strong>
\nThe investment seeks to track the investment results of the ICE\u00ae U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index.
\n\uff08Citation: investor.vanguard.com<\/a>\uff09
\n\"IEF<\/p>\n

ISTB<\/strong>
\nThe investment seeks to track the investment results of the Bloomberg U.S. Universal 1-5 Year Index, which measures the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated taxable bonds that are rated either investment-grade or high yield with remaining effective maturities between one and five years.
\n\uff08Citation: investor.vanguard.com<\/a>\uff09
\n\"ISTB<\/p>\n

(Image: Google Search)<\/p>\n

TLT and EDV<\/h3>\n

As someone holding TLT and EDV, the poor performance of U.S. Treasuries is not someone else’s problem.<\/p>\n

Persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S., prolonged high interest rates, an expanding fiscal deficit, massive issuance of government bonds, and the Fed’s balance sheet reduction are cited as reasons for the price decline.<\/p>\n

In addition, tariff risks from the current administration and the recent downgrade of U.S. Treasuries by Moody\u2019s are likely negative factors.<\/p>\n

These issues seem to be connected to broader international developments\u2014namely, the perceived decline in America’s global dominance as a superpower and the accompanying rise of authoritarian states like China. That may be a simplistic view, but still.<\/p>\n

While some believe the decline may pause depending on the Fed\u2019s guidance\u2014such as the possibility of a rate cut in September or a halt to quantitative tightening (QT)\u2014as a retail trader who relies on technical analysis, I neither have the motivation nor the ability to analyze or interpret such Fed communications.<\/p>\n

The only thing I need to think about is under what conditions I should reduce my holdings.<\/p>\n

Why I Bought U.S. Treasuries<\/h3>\n

The initial reason I started buying U.S. Treasuries was as part of a diversified investment strategy.<\/p>\n

Since I invest in relatively risky assets like stocks and commodities, I was gradually purchasing what were considered (or had been considered) relatively safe U.S. Treasuries to mitigate those risks. Essentially as a way to reduce investment risk\u2014almost like a savings account.<\/p>\n

I never expected that U.S. Treasuries, supposedly the safest asset, would drag down my investment performance this much.<\/p>\n

I fully understand that, since I bought them with the intention of holding for decades, I shouldn’t be getting emotional over short-term price movements.<\/p>\n

Still, the environment surrounding U.S. Treasuries is just too bad.<\/p>\n

All I Hear Are Bad News<\/h3>\n

Like in Japan and Europe, long-term interest rates are starting to rise again, and it seems like that trend is just getting started. There\u2019s a concern that the period since the historic U.S. Treasury crash a few years ago was just a pause before another leg down. That\u2019s certainly how the chart is starting to look.<\/p>\n

Most of the news I hear is negative, but rather than just fearing the fall in U.S. Treasuries themselves, there seems to be more concern about the broader impact on other sectors.<\/p>\n

Holders of U.S. government bonds are spread across the globe\u2014ranging from sovereign states to companies in various industries, and even individual investors.<\/p>\n

Just last month (May 2025), Norinchukin Bank was reported to have suffered a \u00a51.8 trillion loss from “failed foreign bond investments.”<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not solely because of U.S. Treasuries, but there’s no doubt that this is deeply tied to global developments, and I personally feel the situation is quite ominous.<\/p>\n

…Still, during times like these, I can’t help but recall a famous market saying…<\/p>\n

True buying opportunities come when there’s total pessimism<\/h3>\n

After a massive crash, U.S. Treasuries are entering another selloff phase without any significant rebound\u2014chart-wise, it’s among the worst price actions.<\/p>\n

Though I had judged that the crash had settled and started accumulating for long-term holding, panic-selling now would be the height of foolishness.<\/p>\n

The real reason I\u2019m so nervous about the drop in U.S. Treasuries is that I made TLT and EDV too large a portion of my portfolio. Reducing that proportion is really all I need to do.<\/p>\n

That means I\u2019d be locking in losses on part of my position, but the thought that nags me is: “Am I selling when it’s actually the time to buy?”<\/p>\n

I recently caught a glimpse of a major bank recommending long-term U.S. Treasuries, but aside from that, the sentiment seems to be near total pessimism\u2014or just a step before it.<\/p>\n

And precisely because of that, I start to wonder if now isn\u2019t the time to reduce my exposure, but rather increase it.<\/p>\n

…I don\u2019t have that kind of courage, but for now, my conclusion is that I don\u2019t need to make any adjustments to my position just yet.<\/p>\n

Timing the Stop-Loss<\/h3>\n

Some people have rules like cutting losses if unrealized losses exceed 20% of their assets. Everyone has their own rules.<\/p>\n

If the losses exceed your tolerance, naturally you start trimming, but in my case, I haven\u2019t defined any clear numerical threshold.<\/p>\n

My stop-loss standard is simply this: I would consider a full exit only when I can no longer believe in the future economic growth of the U.S.\u2014a completely boring and obvious standard, but it\u2019s the only way I can put it.<\/p>\n

What matters more than surface-level figures like GDP or trade balance is the intangible atmosphere of the country I lived in for eight years. If that sense of America breaks down irreparably, that would be the real signal to exit.<\/p>\n

Not due to some sudden event, but a long-term decline where eventually even Americans themselves stop believing in their country\u2019s global dominance\u2014that would be the line crossed.<\/p>\n

I imagine it would feel similar to the atmosphere in Japan during the 2010s.<\/p>\n

America is not such a fragile country that it would crumble from the emergence of a single president. One should never underestimate the obsession\u2014truly unimaginable in strength\u2014of Americans, and more broadly Anglo-Saxon whites, with maintaining their global dominance.<\/p>\n

Putin once said, “What meaning is there in a world without Russia?” In the U.S., not just the president but countless Americans feel that deeply and clearly about the United States of America.<\/p>\n

That is why I buy U.S. Treasuries\u2014for better or worse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As someone holding TLT and EDV, the poor performance of U.S. Treasuries is not someone else's problem.","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2014,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stocks"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["ja","en"],"languages":{"ja":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true}}},"yoast_head":"\nThe U.S. Treasury chart is starting to look pretty ugly - inv.jp | my backtesting notes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As a holder of TLT and EDV, the decline in U.S. Treasuries is not someone else's problem. However, I\u2019m not yet thinking of reducing my holding ratio. Here's why.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The U.S. Treasury chart is starting to look pretty ugly - inv.jp | my backtesting notes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As a holder of TLT and EDV, the decline in U.S. Treasuries is not someone else's problem. However, I\u2019m not yet thinking of reducing my holding ratio. Here's why.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"inv.jp | my backtesting notes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-06-05T16:10:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/inv.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/1792x1024-012.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1792\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"yasujin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"yasujin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"yasujin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4b3451e93d7e8cf10133270531351d3c\"},\"headline\":\"The U.S. Treasury chart is starting to look pretty ugly\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-06-05T16:10:54+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1144,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/1792x1024-012.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"stocks\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/\",\"name\":\"The U.S. Treasury chart is starting to look pretty ugly - inv.jp | my backtesting notes\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/1792x1024-012.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-06-05T16:10:54+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4b3451e93d7e8cf10133270531351d3c\"},\"description\":\"TLT\u3068EDV\u306e\u4fdd\u6709\u8005\u3068\u3057\u3066\u7c73\u56fd\u50b5\u5238\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u306f\u4eba\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u307e\u3060\u4fdd\u6709\u6bd4\u7387\u3092\u4e0b\u3052\u3088\u3046\u3068\u306f\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u305d\u306e\u7406\u7531\u3002\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/1792x1024-012.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/1792x1024-012.webp\",\"width\":1792,\"height\":1024,\"caption\":\"New York City Scenery\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/stocks\\\/s008\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\u7c73\u56fd\u50b5\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u304c\u304b\u306a\u308a\u5acc\u306a\u5f62\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305f\u4ef6\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/\",\"name\":\"inv.jp | my backtesting notes\",\"description\":\"my backtesting notes\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4b3451e93d7e8cf10133270531351d3c\",\"name\":\"yasujin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/aca97c2438dbdb95dc679245354777412eb02d62b8429f1d9fb99d76dc53272e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/aca97c2438dbdb95dc679245354777412eb02d62b8429f1d9fb99d76dc53272e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/aca97c2438dbdb95dc679245354777412eb02d62b8429f1d9fb99d76dc53272e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"yasujin\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/inv.jp\\\/en\\\/author\\\/yasujin\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The U.S. Treasury chart is starting to look pretty ugly - inv.jp | my backtesting notes","description":"As a holder of TLT and EDV, the decline in U.S. Treasuries is not someone else's problem. However, I\u2019m not yet thinking of reducing my holding ratio. Here's why.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The U.S. Treasury chart is starting to look pretty ugly - inv.jp | my backtesting notes","og_description":"As a holder of TLT and EDV, the decline in U.S. Treasuries is not someone else's problem. However, I\u2019m not yet thinking of reducing my holding ratio. Here's why.","og_url":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/","og_site_name":"inv.jp | my backtesting notes","article_published_time":"2025-06-05T16:10:54+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1792,"height":1024,"url":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/1792x1024-012.webp","type":"image\/webp"}],"author":"yasujin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"yasujin","Est. reading time":"9 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/"},"author":{"name":"yasujin","@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/#\/schema\/person\/4b3451e93d7e8cf10133270531351d3c"},"headline":"The U.S. Treasury chart is starting to look pretty ugly","datePublished":"2025-06-05T16:10:54+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/"},"wordCount":1144,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/1792x1024-012.webp","articleSection":["stocks"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/","url":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/","name":"The U.S. Treasury chart is starting to look pretty ugly - inv.jp | my backtesting notes","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/1792x1024-012.webp","datePublished":"2025-06-05T16:10:54+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/#\/schema\/person\/4b3451e93d7e8cf10133270531351d3c"},"description":"TLT\u3068EDV\u306e\u4fdd\u6709\u8005\u3068\u3057\u3066\u7c73\u56fd\u50b5\u5238\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u306f\u4eba\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u307e\u3060\u4fdd\u6709\u6bd4\u7387\u3092\u4e0b\u3052\u3088\u3046\u3068\u306f\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u305d\u306e\u7406\u7531\u3002","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/1792x1024-012.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/1792x1024-012.webp","width":1792,"height":1024,"caption":"New York City Scenery"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/stocks\/s008\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"\u30db\u30fc\u30e0","item":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\u7c73\u56fd\u50b5\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u304c\u304b\u306a\u308a\u5acc\u306a\u5f62\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305f\u4ef6"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/#website","url":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/","name":"inv.jp | my backtesting notes","description":"my backtesting notes","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/#\/schema\/person\/4b3451e93d7e8cf10133270531351d3c","name":"yasujin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/aca97c2438dbdb95dc679245354777412eb02d62b8429f1d9fb99d76dc53272e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/aca97c2438dbdb95dc679245354777412eb02d62b8429f1d9fb99d76dc53272e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/aca97c2438dbdb95dc679245354777412eb02d62b8429f1d9fb99d76dc53272e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"yasujin"},"url":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/author\/yasujin\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2013","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2013"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2013\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2019,"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2013\/revisions\/2019"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2014"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2013"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2013"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inv.jp\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2013"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}