1. ChatGPT economic forcast

Feburary 19th ~ 23rd, 2024 – ChatGPT Economic Forecasts

The institutional investor 4, Banksy tasted

“The institutional investor 4”
Image extraction: DALL・E2

Warning:

The buying/selling listed on this page is not a recommendation to buy or sell the listed stocks, currencies, or crypto assets. It only publishes the results automatically calculated by the computing machine, and has no further meaning or purpose.

In summary…

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Week of Feburary 19 – 23, 2024,
SPX500: sell
USD/JPY: buy
EUR/USD: sell
BTC/USD: buy
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Results…

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SPX500:icon-wrong(open:5006.60 – close:5084.67)
USD/JPY:icon-right(open:150.20 – close:150.49)
EUR/USD:icon-wrong(open:1.0771 – close:1.0820)
BTC/USD:icon-wrong(open:51861.87 – close:50960.00)
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ChatGPT (ChatGPT4+Browsing) answer (*excerpt):

"
SPX500
Decisions on taking positions in the SPX500 at the beginning of next week will be based on recent market trends and economic data. Currently, the market is focused on several key economic indicators and corporate performance.

Recent reports have indicated that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected, suggesting that inflationary pressures are still present. High inflationary pressures usually mean tighter monetary policy, which is a negative factor for the stock market. In particular, the market had been expecting a pause or even a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, but such inflation data could push back these expectations.

Goldman Sachs has revised its year-end target for the S&P 500 upwards, indicating some optimism about the market, mainly based on the strength of corporate earnings. However, this may not necessarily reflect in short-term market movements.

Recent data suggesting high inflationary pressures prompts a cautious stance towards the market, while positive factors like the strength of corporate earnings are also influencing the market.

Therefore, taking into account the current market environment and recent economic data, I might consider a cautious approach and think about a selling position. Especially, the recent PPI exceeding expectations and showing high inflationary pressures suggests the possibility of tighter monetary policy, which could be a short-term negative factor for the stock market. Also, considering the significant rise in the stock market since the beginning of the year, especially with high valuations in tech stocks, there is a risk of correction in the stock market.

USD/JPY
Regarding trading USD/JPY next week, several important factors should be considered. First, the USD/JPY pair is seen as a benchmark for the economic health of Asia and the global economy. Therefore, this currency pair’s movements can be significantly affected by a broad range of economic indicators.

Latest trading data shows that USD/JPY has slightly increased to 150.21 JPY, near the upper limit of its trading range for the year. This suggests that the currency pair is showing relatively bullish movements, but this could change in the future.

Regarding economic indicators, recent reports have indicated that the U.S. PPI exceeded expectations, showing that inflationary pressures still exist. This is generally a positive factor for the dollar, but some market segments are increasingly focusing on the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s policies due to such inflation data, which could affect the yen’s movements.

Therefore, taking into account the current market environment and recent economic data, I might consider a buying position. Especially, the recent U.S. PPI exceeding expectations shows that inflationary pressures still exist, which could generally be a positive factor for the dollar. Also, the relatively bullish movements of USD/JPY support a buying position.

(Sources:Reuters、DailyFX)

EUR/USD
Recent economic indicators suggest that the Eurozone’s GDP growth rate is a modest 0.1% increase from the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. Also, the latest trading information shows that EUR/USD has slightly increased, trading at 1.08 USD.

Based on this information, when considering the trading strategy for EUR/USD next week, the slowdown in Eurozone economic activity could negatively impact the euro. However, EUR/USD is currently trading at a relatively stable price without significant fluctuations, suggesting that the market may have already priced in some economic uncertainties.

Additionally, U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve policy trends could significantly impact EUR/USD movements. Recent reports of weak U.S. retail sales contrast with strong PPI results, increasing uncertainty in the dollar’s movements.

Considering these factors, a cautious approach may be appropriate in the current market environment, and a selling position for EUR/USD might be considered. However, it’s crucial to stay attentive to market trends and new economic data releases, adjusting strategies quickly as needed.

(Sources:Reuters、DailyFX)

BTC/USD
Regarding BTC/USD trading, a cautious approach is recommended considering recent market trends and related news. According to Yahoo Finance, BTC’s price has slightly increased, trading at 51,823.12 dollars. CoinDesk data also shows Bitcoin’s price at 51,772.88 dollars, indicating a minor increase of 0.15%. This suggests that Bitcoin is maintaining a stable trend, with a low likelihood of significant price fluctuations.

However, Bitcoin’s price is highly volatile and can fluctuate greatly due to unpredictable factors. Therefore, investors need to practice thorough risk management and be responsive to market trends. Specifically, information from Yahoo Finance indicates increased interest in Bitcoin ETFs, with observed inflows into certain ETFs and outflows from others, adding to the market’s opacity.

In this situation, I might consider a buying position cautiously. However, this decision should be based on the latest market trends and news, especially macroeconomic factors like economic indicators and policy announcements. Also, it’s important to implement risk management measures, such as setting stop-loss orders and adjusting position sizes, to prepare for sudden price changes.

Sources:

Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price, Value, News & History
CoinDesk: Bitcoin Price | BTC Price Index and Live Chart
DailyFX: Bitcoin Price Today | BTC Live Chart and Forecast
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Extraction date & time:

20240218 22:30

This week, there was variability in the length of text depending on the subject. EUR/USD and BTC/USD were clearly shorter than the other two before removing unnecessary parts from the original. Furthermore, while instructions to list sources at the end of the text are sometimes accepted, they are completely ignored in some cases. It would be confusing for those who don’t realize that chatting with AI is significantly different from interactions with previous machines. To increase literacy, I want to continue making extensive use of AI chat for various purposes.

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